Tlaxcala vs Piratas Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Tlaxcala
Oct 10, 2026 - 22:00
1.29 1.31
Piratas
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Tlaxcala opened at -0.25 against Piratas in the Liga de Expansión MX. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Tlaxcala -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Piratas than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Tlaxcala -0.25
@ 2.90
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.39
Price Advantage
+21.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.62 / 1.77 -0.25 2.62 / 1.77 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.90 / 1.84 -0.25 2.90 / 1.84 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.65 / 1.77 -0.25 2.65 / 1.77 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.29 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.90
Tlaxcala @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.39
Tlaxcala @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.90 vs 2.39
Market price is 21.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.45 4.86
-1.50 6.45 3.82
-1.25 6.05 3.42
-1.00 5.65 3.05
-0.75 3.82 2.35
-0.25 2.65 1.77
0 2.29 1.52
+0.25 1.85 1.39
+0.75 1.47 1.18
+1.00 1.28 1.08
+1.25 1.23 1.06
+1.50 1.18 1.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.50 4.85
-1.50 6.45 3.82
-1.25 6.05 3.42
-1.00 5.65 3.05
-0.75 3.82 2.35
-0.25 2.62 1.77
0 2.29 1.52
+0.25 1.85 1.38
+0.75 1.47 1.18
+1.00 1.28 1.08
+1.25 1.23 1.06
+1.50 1.18 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.25 2.51
-0.50 3.32 2.13
-0.25 2.90 1.84
0 2.45 1.54
+0.25 1.96 1.40
+0.50 1.70 1.31
+0.75 1.51 1.21
Primary Bets
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