CA La Paz vs Piratas Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

CA La Paz
Final Score
2 – 0
(HT 2-0)
Piratas
Kick-off 03:00 Stadium Estadio Guaycura

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

CA La Paz opened at 0 against Piratas in the Liga de Expansión MX. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 8 valid books, with 38% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.34 / 1.26
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
CA La Paz 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 8 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward CA La Paz than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

Price advantage is below the lean threshold.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 8 valid books · 38% agreement · Weak

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:30
Opening
0
00:01
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.77 / 2.00 0 1.70 / 2.10 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.77 / 1.90 -0.25 1.92 / 2.28 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.83 / 1.98 0 1.75 / 2.12 — 0
Bet365 0 1.92 / 1.88 0 1.78 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet 0 1.60 / 2.20 -0.25 1.95 / 2.28 — -0.25
Unibet -0.50 2.05 / 2.88 -0.50 2.20 / 2.65 — 0
Superbet -0.50 2.02 / 2.82 -0.50 2.02 / 2.82 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.95 / 2.40 -0.25 1.97 / 2.37 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.70 2.10

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.70 10.50
-2.00 8.00 9.20
-1.75 5.45 7.55
-1.50 4.25 5.35
-1.25 3.85 4.94
-1.00 3.42 4.50
-0.75 2.59 3.14
-0.25 1.95 2.28
0 1.69 2.01
+0.25 1.50 1.74
+0.75 1.27 1.39
+1.00 1.13 1.23
+1.25 1.11 1.18
+1.50 1.09 1.15
+1.75 1.04 1.08
+2.00 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.78 2.02

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.97 2.37
0 1.68 2.02
+0.25 1.50 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.45 6.90
-1.50 4.25 5.35
-1.25 3.85 4.95
-1.00 3.42 4.50
-0.75 2.59 3.14
-0.25 1.92 2.28
0 1.69 2.01
+0.25 1.50 1.71
+0.75 1.27 1.39
+1.00 1.13 1.23
+1.25 1.11 1.18
+1.50 1.09 1.15
+1.75 1.04 1.08

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.63 4.52
-0.75 2.77 3.44
-0.50 2.32 2.78
-0.25 2.05 2.46
0 1.75 2.12
+0.25 1.56 1.82
+0.50 1.45 1.63
+0.75 1.32 1.46
+1.00 1.19 1.29

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.02 2.82
+0.50 1.33 1.62

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.00 5.10
-0.50 2.20 2.65
+0.50 1.40 1.58
+1.50 1.11 1.19
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

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