Tapatío vs CA La Paz Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Tapatío
Oct 09, 2026 - 23:00 2H
2 1.30
4 1.30
CA La Paz
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 5 books · 60% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Tapatío opened at 0 against CA La Paz in the Liga de Expansión MX. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Tapatío from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Tapatío -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward CA La Paz than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
CA La Paz +0.25
@ 2.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+16.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.88 / 1.78 -0.25 2.35 / 1.88 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.02 / 1.79 0 2.16 / 1.72 — 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 2.00 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet 0 1.88 / 1.78 -0.25 2.37 / 1.88 — -0.25
BetVictor 0 1.85 / 1.82 -0.25 2.35 / 1.92 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
0
xG 1.30 / 1.30 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.35
Tapatío @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.36
Tapatío @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.35 vs 2.36
Market price is 0.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.50 7.50
-2.00 9.30 6.80
-1.75 6.70 4.80
-1.50 5.20 3.84
-1.25 4.80 3.50
-1.00 4.40 3.14
-0.75 3.20 2.49
-0.25 2.37 1.88
0 2.06 1.64
+0.25 1.75 1.48
+0.75 1.42 1.26
+1.00 1.27 1.14
+1.25 1.22 1.11
+1.50 1.18 1.10
+1.75 1.11 1.05
+2.00 1.04 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.00 1.80

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.40 2.17
-0.25 2.35 1.92
0 2.04 1.66
+0.25 1.76 1.50
+0.50 1.59 1.49

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.20 7.50
-2.00 9.00 6.80
-1.75 6.70 4.80
-1.50 5.20 3.84
-1.25 4.80 3.50
-1.00 4.40 3.14
-0.75 3.20 2.49
-0.25 2.35 1.88
0 2.06 1.64
+0.25 1.75 1.47
+0.75 1.42 1.26
+1.00 1.27 1.14
+1.25 1.22 1.12
+1.50 1.18 1.10
+1.75 1.11 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.97 3.51
-0.75 3.47 2.73
-0.50 2.85 2.31
-0.25 2.51 2.03
0 2.16 1.72
+0.25 1.83 1.54
+0.50 1.64 1.43
+0.75 1.47 1.31
+1.00 1.31 1.25
Primary Bets
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