Dorados vs Tlaxcala Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dorados
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 0-2)
Tlaxcala
Kick-off 01:00 Stadium Estadio Dorados

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dorados opened at 0 against Tlaxcala in the Liga de Expansión MX. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 6 of 8 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.24 / 1.36
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Dorados 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 6 / 8 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Tlaxcala than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Tlaxcala 0
@ 1.93
Best Available Price · 10Bet
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.86
Price Advantage
+3.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
6 / 8 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:15
Opening
0
00:01
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.77 / 2.00 0 1.80 / 1.93 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.73 / 1.95 0 1.87 / 1.80 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.79 / 2.03 0 1.98 / 1.88 — 0
Bet365 0 1.82 / 1.98 0 1.92 / 1.88 — 0
1xBet 0 1.73 / 1.95 0 1.87 / 1.80 — 0
Unibet +0.50 1.41 / 1.53 -0.50 2.30 / 2.60 — -1.00
Betano -0.25 2.00 / 2.00 -0.25 2.00 / 2.00 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.74 / 1.94 0 1.88 / 1.80 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.80 1.93

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.20 9.70
-2.00 10.00 9.30
-1.75 7.50 7.85
-1.50 5.60 5.30
-1.25 5.09 4.80
-1.00 4.55 4.30
-0.75 3.14 2.97
-0.25 2.20 2.10
0 1.87 1.80
+0.25 1.59 1.57
+0.75 1.30 1.27
+1.00 1.15 1.13
+1.25 1.12 1.10
+1.50 1.09 1.08
+1.75 1.04 1.03

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 6.40
-1.50 5.50 5.00
-1.25 5.00 4.40
-1.00 4.40 4.10
-0.75 3.45 3.10
-0.50 2.75 2.60
-0.25 2.35 2.20
0 1.92 1.88
+0.25 1.65 1.58
+0.50 1.48 1.42
+0.75 1.35 1.30
+1.00 1.23 1.20
+1.25 1.20 1.17
+1.50 1.17 1.15
+1.75 1.12 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.58 2.47
-0.25 2.23 2.13
0 1.88 1.80
+0.25 1.61 1.56
+0.50 1.46 1.42

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.00 2.00
+0.25 1.72 1.72

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.50 7.10
-1.50 5.60 5.30
-1.25 5.10 4.80
-1.00 4.55 4.30
-0.75 3.14 2.97
-0.25 2.17 2.10
0 1.87 1.80
+0.25 1.59 1.55
+0.75 1.30 1.27
+1.00 1.15 1.13
+1.25 1.12 1.10
+1.50 1.09 1.08
+1.75 1.04 1.03

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.72 4.37
-0.75 3.33 3.13
-0.50 2.70 2.56
-0.25 2.34 2.22
0 1.98 1.88
+0.25 1.68 1.62
+0.50 1.53 1.48
+0.75 1.37 1.33
+1.00 1.22 1.20

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 5.10
-0.50 2.30 2.60
+0.50 1.41 1.53
+1.50 1.11 1.16
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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