Ynyshir Albions vs Pontypridd Town Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ynyshir Albions
Sep 05, 2026 - 13:30 PST
1.29 1.31
Pontypridd Town
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ynyshir Albions opened at -0.25 against Pontypridd Town in the FAW Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ynyshir Albions -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Pontypridd Town than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Ynyshir Albions -0.25
@ 2.56
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.39
Price Advantage
+7.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.49 / 1.77 -0.25 2.49 / 1.77 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.53 / 1.77 -0.25 2.56 / 1.76 — 0
Superbet -0.50 2.75 / 2.00 -0.50 2.75 / 2.00 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.29 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.49
Ynyshir Albions @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.39
Ynyshir Albions @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.49 vs 2.39
Market price is 4.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.05 3.74
-1.00 5.15 2.92
-0.75 3.50 2.30
-0.25 2.56 1.76
0 2.23 1.56
+0.25 1.86 1.43
+0.75 1.49 1.22
+1.00 1.31 1.10
+1.50 1.19 1.06

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.00 3.75
-1.00 5.10 2.97
-0.75 3.50 2.33
-0.25 2.49 1.77
0 2.21 1.57
+0.25 1.85 1.42
+0.75 1.48 1.22
+1.00 1.30 1.10
+1.50 1.19 1.06

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.75 2.00
+0.50 1.65 1.34
Primary Bets
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