Caersws vs Newtown AFC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Caersws
Aug 22, 2026 - 13:30 PST
1.39 1.21
Newtown AFC
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
0
PRE1 consensus
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Caersws opened at 0 against Newtown AFC in the FAW Championship. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
Caersws -0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Caersws 0
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Caersws than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Caersws 0
@ 2.02
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+12.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.41 / 1.81 0 1.93 / 1.75 0 +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.92 / 1.84 0 1.97 / 1.79 0 0
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 0
1xBet 0 2.20 / 1.62 0 1.93 / 1.75 0 0
Superbet -0.50 2.67 / 2.00 -0.50 2.42 / 2.25 -0.50 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
xG 1.39 / 1.21 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Closing consensus
Market Odds
1.97
Caersws @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.79
Caersws @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.97 vs 1.79
Market price is 10.1% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.90 8.40
-2.00 9.20 7.80
-1.50 4.80 4.20
-1.00 4.00 3.42
-0.75 2.97 2.62
-0.25 2.20 1.98
0 1.93 1.75
+0.25 1.67 1.57
+0.75 1.38 1.30
+1.00 1.23 1.17
+1.50 1.15 1.11
+2.50 1.03 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.02 1.78

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.20 7.80
-1.50 4.80 4.20
-1.00 4.00 3.42
-0.75 2.97 2.62
-0.25 2.17 1.98
0 1.93 1.75
+0.25 1.67 1.55
+0.75 1.38 1.30
+1.00 1.23 1.17
+1.50 1.15 1.11

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.93 2.64
-0.50 2.47 2.25
-0.25 2.23 2.03
0 1.97 1.79
+0.25 1.72 1.60
+0.50 1.57 1.47
+0.75 1.42 1.35

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.42 2.25
+0.50 1.50 1.43
Primary Bets
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