Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Tienen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Spouwen-Mopertingen
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00
1.40 1.20
Tienen
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Spouwen-Mopertingen opened at -0.25 against Tienen in the First Amateur Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
Spouwen-Mopertingen -0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Spouwen-Mopertingen -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Tienen than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Tienen +0.25
@ 2.78
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.92
Price Advantage
+44.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.72 / 2.69 -0.25 1.72 / 2.69 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.80 / 2.78 -0.25 1.80 / 2.78 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.74 / 2.69 -0.25 1.74 / 2.69 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.60 / 2.32 -0.25 1.60 / 2.32 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
xG 1.40 / 1.20 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.80
Spouwen-Mopertingen @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.09
Spouwen-Mopertingen @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.80 vs 2.09
Market price is 13.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 6.60
-1.00 2.83 5.70
-0.75 2.24 3.86
-0.25 1.74 2.69
0 1.49 2.36
+0.25 1.36 1.93
+0.75 1.18 1.52
+1.00 1.08 1.33
+1.50 1.05 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.60 2.32
0 1.40 2.06
+0.25 1.30 1.74

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 6.60
-1.00 2.83 5.70
-0.75 2.24 3.86
-0.25 1.72 2.69
0 1.49 2.36
+0.25 1.36 1.91
+0.75 1.18 1.52
+1.00 1.08 1.33
+1.50 1.05 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.04 3.14
-0.25 1.80 2.78
0 1.53 2.42
+0.25 1.40 1.99
+0.50 1.32 1.74
Primary Bets
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