RWDM vs Rochefort Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

RWDM
Sep 30, 2026 - 18:00
1.30 1.30
Rochefort
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

RWDM opened at -0.25 against Rochefort in the First Amateur Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
RWDM -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Rochefort than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Rochefort +0.25
@ 2.73
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+56.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.76 / 2.59 -0.25 1.76 / 2.59 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.81 / 2.73 -0.25 1.81 / 2.73 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.78 / 2.59 -0.25 1.78 / 2.59 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
0
xG 1.30 / 1.30 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.81
RWDM @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.36
RWDM @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.81 vs 2.36
Market price is 23.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 6.20
-1.25 3.28 5.38
-1.00 2.88 5.30
-0.75 2.30 3.72
-0.25 1.78 2.59
0 1.53 2.27
+0.25 1.39 1.88
+0.75 1.20 1.49
+1.00 1.09 1.32
+1.25 1.09 1.25
+1.50 1.06 1.21

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 6.20
-1.00 2.88 5.30
-0.75 2.30 3.72
-0.25 1.76 2.59
0 1.53 2.27
+0.25 1.39 1.86
+0.75 1.20 1.49
+1.00 1.09 1.32
+1.50 1.06 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.03 3.08
-0.25 1.81 2.73
0 1.54 2.40
+0.25 1.41 1.99
+0.50 1.33 1.75
Primary Bets
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