Sundby vs Ishøj Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sundby
Final Score
2 – 3
(HT 1-1)
Ishøj
Kick-off 17:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sundby opened at -0.25 against Ishøj in the 3. Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 1.29
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Sundby -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Ishøj than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Ishøj +0.25
@ 2.39
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+36.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
13:56
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.46 -0.25 1.90 / 2.30 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.72 / 2.02 0 1.72 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.83 / 2.46 -0.25 1.92 / 2.30 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.88 / 2.47 -0.25 1.93 / 2.39 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 5.55
-1.00 3.34 4.60
-0.75 2.56 3.20
-0.25 1.92 2.30
0 1.67 2.03
+0.25 1.49 1.75
+0.75 1.26 1.40
+1.00 1.13 1.24
+1.50 1.08 1.15

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.93 2.39
0 1.65 2.06
+0.25 1.49 1.75

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 5.55
-1.00 3.34 4.60
-0.75 2.56 3.20
-0.25 1.90 2.30
0 1.67 2.03
+0.25 1.49 1.73
+0.75 1.26 1.40
+1.00 1.13 1.24
+1.50 1.08 1.15

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.24 2.58
-0.25 2.00 2.30
0 1.72 2.02
+0.25 1.54 1.77
+0.50 1.44 1.59
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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