Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Arsenal Tula
Oct 09, 2026 - 16:30
1.31 1.29
Spartak Kostroma
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Arsenal Tula opened at 0 against Spartak Kostroma in the First League. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Arsenal Tula 0
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Arsenal Tula than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Spartak Kostroma 0
@ 2.09
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.03
Price Advantage
+3.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.02 / 1.72 0 1.72 / 2.02 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.08 / 1.75 0 1.75 / 2.09 — 0
1xBet 0 2.08 / 1.77 0 1.77 / 2.08 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.75
Arsenal Tula @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.97
Arsenal Tula @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.75 vs 1.97
Market price is 11.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.95 8.90
-1.50 5.15 6.50
-1.25 4.64 5.90
-1.00 4.10 5.35
-0.75 2.88 3.50
-0.25 2.11 2.38
0 1.77 2.08
+0.25 1.47 1.75
+0.75 1.22 1.32
+1.00 1.09 1.16
+1.25 1.07 1.12
+1.50 1.05 1.10

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.95 8.90
-1.50 5.15 6.50
-1.25 4.65 5.90
-1.00 4.10 5.35
-0.75 2.88 3.50
-0.25 2.00 2.38
0 1.72 2.02
+0.25 1.47 1.66
+0.75 1.22 1.32
+1.00 1.09 1.16
+1.25 1.07 1.12
+1.50 1.05 1.10

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.21 5.47
-0.75 3.00 3.68
-0.50 2.45 2.92
-0.25 2.10 2.51
0 1.75 2.09
+0.25 1.52 1.72
+0.50 1.40 1.53
+0.75 1.26 1.37
+1.00 1.14 1.21
Primary Bets
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