Vizela vs Sporting CP B Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Vizela
Oct 10, 2026 - 19:30
1.33 1.27
Sporting CP B
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Vizela opened at -0.25 against Sporting CP B in the Segunda Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Vizela -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Sporting CP B than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sporting CP B +0.25
@ 2.81
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+57.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.65 -0.25 1.81 / 2.65 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.88 / 2.81 -0.25 1.88 / 2.81 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.85 / 2.65 -0.25 1.85 / 2.65 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.85 / 2.75 -0.25 1.85 / 2.75 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.88
Vizela @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.27
Vizela @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.88 vs 2.27
Market price is 17.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 8.20
-1.50 4.33 7.40
-1.25 3.85 6.75
-1.00 3.34 6.20
-0.75 2.49 3.95
-0.25 1.85 2.65
0 1.56 2.29
+0.25 1.38 1.86
+0.75 1.17 1.42
+1.00 1.06 1.24
+1.25 1.04 1.18
+1.50 1.03 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.07

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.85 2.75
+0.25 1.44 1.91

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 8.20
-1.50 4.33 7.40
-1.25 3.85 6.75
-1.00 3.34 6.20
-0.75 2.49 3.95
-0.25 1.81 2.65
0 1.56 2.29
+0.25 1.38 1.82
+0.75 1.17 1.42
+1.00 1.06 1.24
+1.25 1.04 1.18
+1.50 1.03 1.14
+1.75 1.02 1.07

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.59 4.16
-0.50 2.18 3.24
-0.25 1.88 2.81
0 1.58 2.37
+0.25 1.43 1.92
+0.50 1.33 1.68
+0.75 1.22 1.49
Primary Bets
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