Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Lusitânia Lourosa
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
1.29 1.31
Chaves
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Lusitânia Lourosa opened at 0 against Chaves in the Segunda Liga. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Lusitânia Lourosa 0
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Chaves than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Chaves 0
@ 2.01
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.97
Price Advantage
+2.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.78 / 1.94 0 1.78 / 1.94 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.81 / 2.01 0 1.81 / 2.01 — 0
1xBet 0 1.78 / 1.94 0 1.78 / 1.94 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.60 / 1.60 +0.25 1.60 / 1.60 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.29 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.81
Lusitânia Lourosa @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.03
Lusitânia Lourosa @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.81 vs 2.03
Market price is 10.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.50 7.30
-1.50 5.05 5.65
-1.25 4.64 5.20
-1.00 4.20 4.75
-0.75 3.04 3.34
-0.25 2.17 2.30
0 1.78 1.94
+0.25 1.50 1.62
+0.75 1.24 1.29
+1.00 1.12 1.15
+1.25 1.10 1.12
+1.50 1.08 1.10
+1.75 1.03 1.05

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.65 2.67
-0.25 2.30 2.30
+0.25 1.60 1.60
+0.50 1.45 1.47

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.50 7.30
-1.50 5.05 5.65
-1.25 4.65 5.20
-1.00 4.20 4.75
-0.75 3.04 3.34
-0.25 2.12 2.30
0 1.78 1.94
+0.25 1.50 1.59
+0.75 1.24 1.29
+1.00 1.12 1.15
+1.25 1.10 1.12
+1.50 1.08 1.10
+1.75 1.03 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.69 5.48
-0.75 3.30 3.72
-0.50 2.67 2.96
-0.25 2.24 2.49
0 1.81 2.01
+0.25 1.53 1.64
+0.50 1.39 1.47
+0.75 1.27 1.32
+1.00 1.15 1.19
Primary Bets
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