Karlsruher SC vs SV Darmstadt 98 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Karlsruher SC
Oct 18, 2026 - 11:30
1.50 1.18
SV Darmstadt 98
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 4 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Karlsruher SC opened at -0.25 against SV Darmstadt 98 in the 2. Bundesliga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 4 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
Karlsruher SC -0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Karlsruher SC -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 4 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Karlsruher SC than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
SV Darmstadt 98 +0.25
@ 2.54
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.05
Price Advantage
+23.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 4 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.42 -0.25 1.83 / 2.42 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.70 / 2.20 0 1.70 / 2.20 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.87 / 2.42 -0.25 1.87 / 2.42 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.18 / 2.87 -0.50 2.18 / 2.87 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
xG 1.50 / 1.18 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.83
Karlsruher SC @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.96
Karlsruher SC @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.83 vs 1.96
Market price is 6.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.40 9.50
-2.00 6.60 8.60
-1.75 4.65 7.90
-1.50 3.70 5.40
-1.25 3.34 5.00
-1.00 2.97 4.55
-0.75 2.39 3.28
-0.25 1.87 2.42
0 1.64 2.15
+0.25 1.46 1.85
+0.75 1.25 1.46
+1.00 1.13 1.30
+1.25 1.10 1.24
+1.50 1.09 1.20
+1.75 1.04 1.12
+2.00 1.03 1.05

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.18 2.87
+0.50 1.45 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.40 9.10
-2.00 6.60 8.50
-1.75 4.65 7.10
-1.50 3.70 5.40
-1.25 3.34 5.00
-1.00 2.97 4.55
-0.75 2.39 3.28
-0.25 1.83 2.42
0 1.64 2.15
+0.25 1.46 1.81
+0.75 1.25 1.46
+1.00 1.13 1.30
+1.25 1.10 1.24
+1.50 1.09 1.20
+1.75 1.04 1.12

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.60 3.48
-0.50 2.23 2.86
-0.25 1.97 2.54
0 1.70 2.20
+0.25 1.54 1.88
+0.50 1.43 1.68
+0.75 1.32 1.52
Primary Bets
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