VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

VfL Bochum
Oct 11, 2026 - 11:30
1.09 1.50
Arminia Bielefeld
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

VfL Bochum opened at -0.25 against Arminia Bielefeld in the 2. Bundesliga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.37
VfL Bochum +0.37

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
VfL Bochum -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.62
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.62 AH points more toward Arminia Bielefeld than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Arminia Bielefeld +0.25
@ 2.65
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.62
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.46
Price Advantage
+81.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.90 / 2.34 -0.25 1.90 / 2.34 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.72 / 2.17 +0.25 1.51 / 1.88 — +0.25
Bet365 0 1.70 / 2.10 -0.25 1.98 / 2.50 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.94 / 2.34 -0.25 1.94 / 2.34 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.57 / 1.80 -0.50 2.27 / 2.90 — -0.75
BetVictor -0.25 1.94 / 2.39 -0.25 1.90 / 2.44 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.37
xG 1.09 / 1.50 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
VfL Bochum @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.16
VfL Bochum @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 3.16
Market price is 39.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.40 9.80
-1.75 5.09 7.33
-1.50 4.00 5.30
-1.25 3.58 4.94
-1.00 3.28 4.55
-0.75 2.53 3.22
-0.25 1.94 2.34
0 1.68 2.09
+0.25 1.49 1.79
+0.75 1.26 1.41
+1.00 1.13 1.25
+1.25 1.11 1.21
+1.50 1.09 1.17
+1.75 1.05 1.10

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 5.90
-1.25 3.70 5.50
-1.00 3.45 5.00
-0.75 2.60 3.55
-0.50 2.25 2.85
-0.25 1.98 2.50
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.50 1.82
+0.50 1.40 1.62
+0.75 1.27 1.48
+1.00 1.17 1.30
+1.25 1.15 1.26
+1.50 1.13 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.17 2.78
-0.25 1.90 2.44
0 1.63 2.10
+0.25 1.47 1.78
+0.50 1.37 1.59

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.27 2.90
+0.50 1.44 1.67

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 6.85
-1.50 4.00 5.30
-1.25 3.58 4.95
-1.00 3.28 4.55
-0.75 2.53 3.22
-0.25 1.90 2.34
0 1.68 2.09
+0.25 1.49 1.75
+0.75 1.26 1.41
+1.00 1.13 1.25
+1.25 1.11 1.21
+1.50 1.09 1.17
+1.75 1.04 1.10

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.71 3.78
-0.50 2.28 3.03
-0.25 2.00 2.65
0 1.68 2.24
+0.25 1.51 1.88
+0.50 1.40 1.65
+0.75 1.28 1.48
Primary Bets
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