Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Nürnberg Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Karlsruher SC
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
1. FC Nürnberg
Kick-off 11:00 Stadium BBBank Wildpark

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Karlsruher SC opened at -0.25 against 1. FC Nürnberg in the 2. Bundesliga. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.57 / 1.53
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Karlsruher SC -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward 1. FC Nürnberg than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Karlsruher SC -0.25
@ 2.67
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.26
Price Advantage
+18.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
10:18
Opening
-0.25
10:42
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
11:01
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.42 / 1.86 -0.25 2.45 / 1.81 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.88 / 1.52 -0.25 2.67 / 1.92 -0.25 -0.50
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 1.82 -0.25 2.42 / 1.88 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 1.98 / 1.77 -0.25 2.52 / 1.81 -0.25 -0.25
Betano +0.25 1.75 / 1.62 +0.25 1.91 / 1.55 +0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.43 / 1.86 -0.25 2.47 / 1.81 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.70 6.40
-2.00 8.80 5.75
-1.75 6.60 4.20
-1.50 5.20 3.42
-1.25 4.80 3.08
-1.00 4.45 2.78
-0.75 3.28 2.28
-0.25 2.52 1.81
0 2.21 1.61
+0.25 1.83 1.48
+0.75 1.50 1.25
+1.00 1.34 1.14
+1.25 1.28 1.12
+1.50 1.23 1.10
+1.75 1.15 1.05
+2.00 1.07 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.60 4.50
-1.50 5.25 3.55
-1.25 4.65 3.30
-1.00 4.25 3.00
-0.75 3.45 2.42
-0.25 2.42 1.88
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.92 1.52
+0.75 1.52 1.30
+1.00 1.38 1.21
+1.25 1.32 1.18
+1.50 1.27 1.16
+1.75 1.19 1.11

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.77 2.04
-0.25 2.47 1.81
0 2.17 1.59
+0.25 1.86 1.46
+0.50 1.67 1.37

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.25 2.50
-0.50 2.85 2.18
-0.25 2.52 1.93
+0.25 1.91 1.55
+0.50 1.72 1.45
+0.75 1.57 1.37

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.20 5.75
-1.75 6.55 4.25
-1.50 5.15 3.42
-1.25 4.80 3.14
-1.00 4.40 2.83
-0.75 3.28 2.31
-0.25 2.45 1.81
0 2.20 1.62
+0.25 1.83 1.45
+0.75 1.49 1.25
+1.00 1.33 1.14
+1.25 1.27 1.12
+1.50 1.23 1.10
+1.75 1.15 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.64 2.48
-0.50 3.00 2.16
-0.25 2.67 1.92
0 2.32 1.66
+0.25 1.97 1.52
+0.50 1.75 1.42
+0.75 1.58 1.31
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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