SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-1)
1. FC Magdeburg
Kick-off 16:30 Stadium Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

SpVgg Greuther Fürth opened at 0 against 1. FC Magdeburg in the 2. Bundesliga. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward SpVgg Greuther Fürth from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 7 valid books, with 57% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.46
SpVgg Greuther Fürth -0.46

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.71 / 1.21
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
SpVgg Greuther Fürth -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 7 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward SpVgg Greuther Fürth than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
SpVgg Greuther Fürth -0.25
@ 2.59
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+44.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 7 valid books · 57% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
+0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
0
14:05
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.93 / 1.82 -0.25 2.42 / 1.85 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.99 / 1.86 +0.25 1.88 / 1.54 +0.25 +0.25
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.86 / 1.52 +0.25 1.87 / 1.52 +0.25 0
Bet365 0 1.98 / 1.82 -0.25 2.50 / 1.95 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet 0 1.86 / 1.86 -0.25 2.47 / 1.85 -0.25 -0.25
Betano +0.25 1.70 / 1.70 +0.25 1.88 / 1.53 +0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.34 / 1.93 -0.25 2.41 / 1.88 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 6.95
-2.00 9.90 6.30
-1.75 6.65 4.54
-1.50 5.25 3.58
-1.25 4.89 3.34
-1.00 4.50 2.97
-0.75 3.28 2.41
-0.25 2.47 1.85
0 2.15 1.64
+0.25 1.80 1.49
+0.75 1.45 1.25
+1.00 1.30 1.13
+1.25 1.24 1.11
+1.50 1.21 1.09
+1.75 1.13 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 5.00
-1.50 5.75 3.80
-1.25 5.25 3.55
-1.00 4.65 3.10
-0.75 3.45 2.50
-0.50 2.85 2.20
-0.25 2.50 1.95
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.85 1.50
+0.50 1.65 1.40
+0.75 1.50 1.30
+1.00 1.35 1.18
+1.25 1.27 1.16
+1.50 1.25 1.14
+1.75 1.17 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.10 2.50
-0.50 2.73 2.12
-0.25 2.41 1.88
0 2.10 1.63
+0.25 1.79 1.48
+0.50 1.62 1.38
+0.75 1.45 1.30

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.45 2.62
-0.50 2.90 2.22
-0.25 2.57 1.98
+0.25 1.88 1.53
+0.50 1.70 1.44
+0.75 1.52 1.34

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.30 6.95
-2.00 9.20 6.30
-1.75 6.65 4.55
-1.50 5.25 3.58
-1.25 4.90 3.34
-1.00 4.50 2.97
-0.75 3.28 2.41
-0.25 2.42 1.85
0 2.15 1.64
+0.25 1.80 1.46
+0.75 1.45 1.25
+1.00 1.30 1.13
+1.25 1.24 1.11
+1.50 1.21 1.09
+1.75 1.13 1.05

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.26 3.43
-0.75 3.63 2.70
-0.50 2.95 2.29
-0.25 2.59 2.02
0 2.22 1.71
+0.25 1.88 1.54
+0.50 1.67 1.43
+0.75 1.51 1.31
+1.00 1.34 1.24

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.51 1.99
+0.25 1.87 1.52
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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