Penybont vs Barry Town Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Penybont
Final Score
3 – 1
(HT 2-1)
Barry Town
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium Bryntirion Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Penybont opened at -0.25 against Barry Town in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Penybont +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.19 / 1.41
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Penybont -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward Barry Town than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Barry Town +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.45
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.58
Price Advantage
+102.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:15
Opening
-0.25
18:11
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.68 / 2.81 -0.25 1.55 / 3.20 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.83 -0.25 1.70 / 2.83 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.65 / 2.80 -0.25 1.65 / 2.80 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.50 8.60
-1.50 3.50 6.95
-1.25 3.14 6.55
-1.00 2.78 6.05
-0.75 2.22 4.06
-0.25 1.70 2.83
0 1.46 2.44
+0.25 1.34 1.98
+0.75 1.17 1.54
+1.00 1.06 1.34
+1.25 1.05 1.27
+1.50 1.04 1.22

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.60 7.00
-0.75 2.15 4.50
-0.50 1.90 3.55
-0.25 1.65 3.10
0 1.42 2.75
+0.25 1.35 2.20
+0.50 1.27 1.90
+0.75 1.19 1.68
+1.00 1.10 1.48

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.65 2.80
+0.25 1.40 2.15

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.76 9.00
-1.50 3.04 7.90
-1.25 2.70 7.50
-1.00 2.38 7.10
-0.75 1.98 4.65
-0.25 1.55 3.20
0 1.35 2.83
+0.25 1.26 2.17
+0.75 1.12 1.67
+1.00 1.04 1.46
+1.25 1.03 1.36
+1.50 1.02 1.29
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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