Llandudno vs Airbus UK Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Llandudno
Final Score
1 – 4
(HT 1-3)
Airbus UK
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium Maesdu Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Llandudno opened at -0.25 against Airbus UK in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Llandudno -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Airbus UK than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Airbus UK +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+46.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
18:11
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.79 / 2.49 -0.25 1.84 / 2.38 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.87 / 2.59 0 1.72 / 2.15 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.50 2.00 / 3.10 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 — +0.25
1xBet 0 1.65 / 2.06 -0.25 1.86 / 2.39 — -0.25
Betano +0.25 1.53 / 2.00 +0.25 1.53 / 2.00 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.63 / 2.24 -0.25 1.69 / 2.13 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.75 10.50
-1.75 4.80 6.80
-1.50 3.80 5.30
-1.25 3.43 4.95
-1.00 3.08 4.55
-0.75 2.45 3.28
-0.25 1.86 2.39
0 1.62 2.10
+0.25 1.47 1.80
+0.75 1.25 1.45
+1.00 1.13 1.28
+1.25 1.11 1.23
+1.50 1.09 1.19
+1.75 1.04 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.70 5.90
-1.25 3.30 5.50
-1.00 3.00 5.00
-0.75 2.38 3.55
-0.50 2.08 3.00
-0.25 1.98 2.60
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.48 1.82
+0.50 1.38 1.72
+0.75 1.27 1.55
+1.00 1.17 1.38
+1.25 1.15 1.32
+1.50 1.13 1.26

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.69 2.13
0 1.49 1.89
+0.25 1.37 1.64

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 2.40
+0.25 1.53 2.00

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 6.80
-1.50 3.80 5.30
-1.25 3.42 4.95
-1.00 3.08 4.55
-0.75 2.43 3.28
-0.25 1.84 2.38
0 1.62 2.10
+0.25 1.46 1.78
+0.75 1.25 1.44
+1.00 1.13 1.28
+1.25 1.11 1.23
+1.50 1.09 1.19
+1.75 1.04 1.12

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.23 2.75
-0.25 2.00 2.44
0 1.72 2.15
+0.25 1.55 1.86
+0.50 1.44 1.67
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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