Llandudno vs Cardiff MET Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Llandudno
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
1.34 1.26
Cardiff MET
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Llandudno opened at -0.25 against Cardiff MET in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Llandudno -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Cardiff MET than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Cardiff MET +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.80
Price Advantage
+44.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.91 / 2.28 -0.25 1.88 / 2.35 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.88 / 2.60 -0.25 1.88 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet 0 1.77 / 1.94 -0.25 1.90 / 2.37 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
xG 1.34 / 1.26 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.88
Llandudno @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.24
Llandudno @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.88 vs 2.24
Market price is 16.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 6.90
-1.50 3.98 5.35
-1.25 3.59 4.96
-1.00 3.20 4.55
-0.75 2.50 3.21
-0.25 1.90 2.37
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.48 1.76
+0.75 1.26 1.43
+1.00 1.13 1.26
+1.25 1.11 1.21
+1.50 1.09 1.17
+1.75 1.04 1.10

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.80 5.90
-1.25 3.45 5.50
-1.00 3.10 5.00
-0.75 2.42 3.55
-0.50 2.10 2.85
-0.25 1.88 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.92
+0.50 1.40 1.70
+0.75 1.27 1.52
+1.00 1.17 1.35
+1.25 1.15 1.30
+1.50 1.13 1.25

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 6.90
-1.50 3.98 5.35
-1.25 3.58 4.95
-1.00 3.20 4.55
-0.75 2.49 3.20
-0.25 1.88 2.35
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.47 1.75
+0.75 1.26 1.42
+1.00 1.13 1.26
+1.25 1.11 1.21
+1.50 1.09 1.17
+1.75 1.04 1.10
Primary Bets
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