GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

GAP Connah S Quay FC
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
1.46 1.14
Penybont
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

GAP Connah S Quay FC opened at -0.25 against Penybont in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
GAP Connah S Quay FC -0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
GAP Connah S Quay FC -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward GAP Connah S Quay FC than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Penybont +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.05
Price Advantage
+51.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.69 / 2.83 -0.25 1.60 / 3.08 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 -0.25 1.70 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet 0 1.50 / 2.33 -0.25 1.61 / 3.08 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.85 -0.25 1.70 / 2.85 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
xG 1.46 / 1.14 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.60
GAP Connah S Quay FC @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.96
GAP Connah S Quay FC @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.60 vs 1.96
Market price is 18.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.34 7.90
-1.25 2.99 7.50
-1.00 2.62 7.10
-0.75 2.12 4.55
-0.25 1.61 3.08
0 1.38 2.70
+0.25 1.28 2.09
+0.75 1.13 1.60
+1.00 1.04 1.38
+1.25 1.03 1.31
+1.50 1.02 1.24

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.85 7.00
-0.75 2.25 4.50
-0.50 1.98 3.55
-0.25 1.70 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.10
+0.50 1.27 1.82
+0.75 1.19 1.62
+1.00 1.10 1.40

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.70 2.85
+0.25 1.39 2.07

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.34 7.90
-1.25 2.97 7.50
-1.00 2.62 7.10
-0.75 2.10 4.55
-0.25 1.60 3.08
0 1.38 2.70
+0.25 1.28 2.08
+0.75 1.13 1.59
+1.00 1.04 1.38
+1.25 1.03 1.30
+1.50 1.02 1.24
Primary Bets
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