Ammanford AFC vs Holywell Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ammanford AFC
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
1.32 1.28
Holywell
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ammanford AFC opened at 0 against Holywell in the Premier League. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ammanford AFC 0
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Ammanford AFC than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Ammanford AFC 0
@ 2.02
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.95
Price Advantage
+3.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.94 / 1.73 0 1.94 / 1.73 — 0
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 2.02 / 1.78 — 0
1xBet 0 1.92 / 1.78 0 1.94 / 1.73 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.25 / 2.07 -0.25 2.27 / 2.02 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.94
Ammanford AFC @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.95
Ammanford AFC @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.94 vs 1.95
Market price is 0.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.00 8.40
-2.00 9.10 7.70
-1.75 6.25 5.35
-1.50 4.90 4.20
-1.25 4.50 3.85
-1.00 4.10 3.42
-0.75 3.04 2.64
-0.25 2.22 1.98
0 1.94 1.73
+0.25 1.70 1.54
+0.75 1.39 1.29
+1.00 1.23 1.16
+1.25 1.19 1.13
+1.50 1.15 1.11
+1.75 1.09 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.60 5.50
-1.50 5.00 4.15
-1.25 4.50 3.80
-1.00 4.15 3.45
-0.75 3.10 2.68
-0.50 2.60 2.30
-0.25 2.30 2.05
0 2.02 1.78
+0.25 1.75 1.60
+0.50 1.60 1.48
+0.75 1.45 1.35
+1.00 1.30 1.22
+1.25 1.25 1.19
+1.50 1.22 1.17
+1.75 1.15 1.11

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.55 2.27
-0.25 2.27 2.02
+0.25 1.75 1.60
+0.50 1.60 1.47

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.10 7.70
-1.75 6.25 5.35
-1.50 4.90 4.20
-1.25 4.50 3.84
-1.00 4.10 3.42
-0.75 3.04 2.62
-0.25 2.21 1.96
0 1.94 1.73
+0.25 1.68 1.53
+0.75 1.38 1.29
+1.00 1.23 1.16
+1.25 1.18 1.13
+1.50 1.15 1.11
+1.75 1.09 1.06
Primary Bets
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