Skive vs Naestved Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Skive
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Naestved
Kick-off 12:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Skive opened at -0.25 against Naestved in the 2. Division. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Naestved from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 7 valid books, with 43% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.24 / 1.36
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Skive 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 3 / 7 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Naestved than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 7 valid books · 43% agreement · Weak

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
10:20
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.95 / 1.70 0 1.95 / 1.70 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.92 -0.25 2.35 / 1.95 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.47 / 1.98 0 2.08 / 1.71 — +0.25
Bet365 0 1.98 / 1.82 0 2.08 / 1.72 — 0
1xBet 0 1.82 / 1.88 -0.25 2.37 / 1.98 — -0.25
Superbet -0.50 2.55 / 2.30 -0.50 2.55 / 2.25 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.47 / 1.93 -0.25 2.44 / 1.95 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.95 1.70

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 6.10
-1.50 5.95 4.65
-1.25 5.46 4.20
-1.00 4.95 3.72
-0.75 3.36 2.72
-0.25 2.37 1.98
0 2.02 1.68
+0.25 1.71 1.48
+0.75 1.37 1.25
+1.00 1.20 1.11
+1.25 1.16 1.09
+1.50 1.12 1.07
+1.75 1.06 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 5.90
-1.50 5.90 4.40
-1.25 5.50 4.00
-1.00 4.80 3.55
-0.75 3.45 2.75
-0.50 2.75 2.30
-0.25 2.42 2.00
0 2.08 1.72
+0.25 1.80 1.52
+0.50 1.60 1.42
+0.75 1.42 1.30
+1.00 1.27 1.18
+1.25 1.23 1.15
+1.50 1.20 1.13
+1.75 1.13 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.53 2.24
-0.25 2.44 1.95
0 2.07 1.65
+0.25 1.73 1.47
+0.50 1.55 1.44

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 6.10
-1.50 5.95 4.65
-1.25 5.45 4.15
-1.00 4.95 3.70
-0.75 3.34 2.70
-0.25 2.35 1.95
0 2.02 1.68
+0.25 1.69 1.47
+0.75 1.36 1.24
+1.00 1.20 1.11
+1.25 1.16 1.08
+1.50 1.12 1.07
+1.75 1.06 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.00 2.72
-0.50 2.75 2.29
-0.25 2.41 2.02
0 2.08 1.71
+0.25 1.78 1.52
+0.50 1.59 1.41
+0.75 1.41 1.35

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.55 2.25
+0.50 1.50 1.39
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More