Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Moreirense
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
GIL Vicente
Kick-off 17:45 Stadium Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Moreirense opened at -0.25 against GIL Vicente in the Primeira Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is +0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.83
Moreirense +0.83

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.51 / 1.42
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Moreirense -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
1.08
handicap points

Model prices the match 1.08 AH points more toward GIL Vicente than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
GIL Vicente +0.25
@ 1.96
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
1.08
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.18
Price Advantage
+66.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → +0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
+0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
-0.25
13:50
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:43
PRE1
+0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.76 / 1.78 -0.25 2.76 / 1.80 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.06 / 1.89 -0.25 3.00 / 1.96 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.92 -0.25 2.85 / 1.92 +0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 3.18 / 1.78 -0.25 3.18 / 1.80 +0.25 0
Betano -0.25 2.95 / 1.88 -0.25 2.95 / 1.88 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.80 / 1.81 -0.25 2.77 / 1.83 +0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 4.30
-1.25 7.19 3.84
-1.00 6.60 3.34
-0.75 4.15 2.47
-0.25 3.18 1.80
0 2.48 1.60
+0.25 1.85 1.40
+0.75 1.43 1.16
+1.00 1.24 1.05
+1.25 1.18 1.03
+1.50 1.14 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 6.80 4.00
-1.00 7.00 3.55
-0.75 4.40 2.60
-0.50 3.45 2.20
-0.25 2.85 1.92
0 2.38 1.55
+0.25 1.92 1.40
+0.50 1.65 1.30
+0.75 1.48 1.20
+1.00 1.27 1.10
+1.25 1.23 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.25 2.14
-0.25 2.77 1.83
0 2.31 1.52
+0.25 1.84 1.37
+0.50 1.61 1.28

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.30 2.27
-0.25 2.95 1.88
+0.25 1.98 1.42
+0.50 1.67 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 4.30
-1.25 7.20 3.84
-1.00 6.60 3.34
-0.75 4.15 2.47
-0.25 2.76 1.80
0 2.38 1.53
+0.25 1.85 1.36
+0.75 1.43 1.16
+1.00 1.24 1.05
+1.25 1.18 1.03
+1.50 1.14 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.66 2.80
-0.50 3.51 2.31
-0.25 3.00 1.96
0 2.47 1.60
+0.25 1.94 1.43
+0.50 1.68 1.33
+0.75 1.48 1.22
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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