SC Braga vs Sporting CP Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

SC Braga
Oct 09, 2026 - 19:15
0.76 1.13
Sporting CP
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

SC Braga opened at -0.25 against Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
SC Braga +0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
SC Braga -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.57
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.57 AH points more toward Sporting CP than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Sporting CP +0.25
@ 1.71
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.57
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.41
Price Advantage
+21.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.66 / 1.77 -0.25 2.74 / 1.71 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.95 / 1.85 -0.25 2.92 / 1.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.88 -0.25 2.75 / 1.88 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.94 / 1.77 0 2.52 / 1.58 — +0.25
Betano -0.25 3.00 / 1.82 -0.25 3.20 / 1.75 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.74 / 1.79 -0.25 2.73 / 1.77 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.32
xG 0.76 / 1.13 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.92
SC Braga @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
3.43
SC Braga @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.92 vs 3.43
Market price is 14.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.60
-1.25 6.49 3.26
-1.00 6.00 2.99
-0.75 4.00 2.42
-0.25 3.24 1.71
0 2.52 1.58
+0.25 1.93 1.38
+0.75 1.62 1.17
+1.00 1.35 1.06
+1.25 1.25 1.05
+1.50 1.21 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 4.00
-1.25 6.40 3.55
-1.00 5.90 3.30
-0.75 4.00 2.50
-0.50 3.30 2.10
-0.25 2.75 1.88
0 2.38 1.55
+0.25 1.98 1.42
+0.50 1.70 1.32
+0.75 1.50 1.23
+1.00 1.32 1.13
+1.25 1.27 1.12
+1.50 1.23 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.10 2.03
-0.25 2.73 1.77
0 2.34 1.51
+0.25 1.90 1.38
+0.50 1.67 1.30

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.45 2.02
-0.25 3.20 1.75
+0.25 2.12 1.38
+0.50 1.83 1.33

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.60
-1.25 6.50 3.28
-1.00 6.00 2.99
-0.75 4.00 2.27
-0.25 2.74 1.71
0 2.35 1.47
+0.25 1.93 1.35
+0.75 1.52 1.17
+1.00 1.35 1.06
+1.25 1.26 1.05
+1.50 1.21 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.30 2.52
-0.50 3.34 2.16
-0.25 2.92 1.88
0 2.49 1.58
+0.25 2.01 1.44
+0.50 1.75 1.35
+0.75 1.56 1.24
Primary Bets
More