Arouca vs Estrela Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Arouca
Oct 11, 2026 - 19:30
1.64 1.42
Estrela
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Arouca opened at -0.25 against Estrela in the Primeira Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
Arouca -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Arouca -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Estrela than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Estrela +0.25
@ 3.02
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.95
Price Advantage
+54.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.80 / 2.61 -0.25 1.73 / 2.76 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.89 / 2.83 -0.25 1.81 / 3.02 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.92 / 2.68 -0.25 1.85 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.91 / 2.61 -0.25 1.84 / 2.76 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.90 / 2.82 -0.25 1.90 / 2.82 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.80 / 2.70 -0.25 1.75 / 2.82 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
xG 1.64 / 1.42 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.81
Arouca @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.06
Arouca @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.81 vs 2.06
Market price is 12.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 8.80
-1.50 3.74 7.10
-1.25 3.34 6.55
-1.00 2.92 6.05
-0.75 2.29 4.00
-0.25 1.84 2.76
0 1.57 2.53
+0.25 1.36 2.05
+0.75 1.17 1.50
+1.00 1.06 1.31
+1.25 1.05 1.24
+1.50 1.04 1.19

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 6.60
-1.25 3.55 6.60
-1.00 3.10 6.25
-0.75 2.42 4.10
-0.50 2.10 3.30
-0.25 1.85 2.85
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.40 2.00
+0.50 1.32 1.70
+0.75 1.23 1.52
+1.00 1.12 1.35
+1.25 1.11 1.27
+1.50 1.11 1.24

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.01 3.25
-0.25 1.75 2.82
0 1.48 2.41
+0.25 1.36 1.93
+0.50 1.28 1.69

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.18 3.25
-0.25 1.90 2.82
+0.25 1.45 1.95
+0.50 1.37 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 8.80
-1.50 3.74 7.10
-1.25 3.34 6.55
-1.00 2.92 6.05
-0.75 2.29 4.00
-0.25 1.73 2.76
0 1.51 2.43
+0.25 1.36 1.93
+0.75 1.17 1.50
+1.00 1.06 1.31
+1.25 1.05 1.24
+1.50 1.04 1.19

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.42 4.44
-0.50 2.07 3.44
-0.25 1.81 3.02
0 1.53 2.57
+0.25 1.40 2.06
+0.50 1.32 1.78
+0.75 1.22 1.58
Primary Bets
More