GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

GIL Vicente
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Maritimo
Kick-off 14:30 Stadium Estadio Cidade de Barcelos

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

GIL Vicente opened at -0.25 against Maritimo in the Primeira Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.32
GIL Vicente -0.32

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.31 / 0.95
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
GIL Vicente -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward GIL Vicente than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Maritimo +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.09
Price Advantage
+53.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
01:01
Opening
-0.25
10:39
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
14:30
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.68 -0.25 1.63 / 3.12 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.88 / 2.85 -0.25 1.88 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet 0 1.60 / 2.48 -0.25 1.73 / 3.15 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.88 / 3.00 -0.25 1.88 / 3.00 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.81 / 2.83 -0.25 1.66 / 3.20 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 8.50
-1.25 3.20 8.00
-1.00 2.78 7.50
-0.75 2.16 4.70
-0.25 1.73 3.15
0 1.45 2.92
+0.25 1.28 2.20
+0.75 1.12 1.56
+1.00 1.03 1.34
+1.25 1.02 1.26

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.45 7.00
-0.75 2.60 4.40
-0.50 2.15 3.45
-0.25 1.88 2.85
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.40 1.98
+0.50 1.30 1.68
+0.75 1.20 1.48
+1.00 1.10 1.30

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.92 3.25
-0.25 1.66 3.20
0 1.39 2.70
+0.25 1.29 2.05
+0.50 1.28 1.76

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.20 3.45
-0.25 1.88 3.00
+0.25 1.42 1.98
+0.50 1.33 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.58 8.40
-1.25 3.20 8.00
-1.00 2.78 7.50
-0.75 2.16 4.70
-0.25 1.63 3.12
0 1.41 2.74
+0.25 1.28 2.07
+0.75 1.12 1.56
+1.00 1.03 1.34
+1.25 1.02 1.26
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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