Nacional vs Estrela Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Nacional
Final Score
2 – 3
(HT 1-1)
Estrela
Kick-off 14:30 Stadium Estádio da Madeira

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Nacional opened at -0.25 against Estrela in the Primeira Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 9 valid books, with 44% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
Nacional -0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.61 / 1.41
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Nacional -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 9 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Estrela than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 9 valid books · 44% agreement · Weak

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:52
Opening
-0.25
14:04
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.65 / 2.15 0 1.65 / 2.15 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.95 / 2.48 -0.25 1.92 / 2.54 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.70 / 2.19 +0.25 1.50 / 1.85 — +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.68 -0.25 2.02 / 2.60 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.06 / 2.48 -0.25 2.03 / 2.54 — 0
Unibet -0.50 2.18 / 2.85 -0.50 2.18 / 2.85 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.52 / 1.82 -0.25 2.02 / 2.67 — -0.50
Superbet -0.50 2.22 / 2.92 -0.50 2.27 / 2.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.95 / 2.46 -0.25 1.93 / 2.53 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.65 2.15

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.05 9.10
-1.50 4.60 6.70
-1.25 4.14 6.15
-1.00 3.60 5.65
-0.75 2.67 3.66
-0.25 2.03 2.54
0 1.71 2.24
+0.25 1.43 1.85
+0.75 1.20 1.38
+1.00 1.08 1.21
+1.25 1.06 1.16
+1.50 1.05 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.60
-1.25 4.00 6.00
-1.00 3.55 5.75
-0.75 2.68 3.80
-0.50 2.25 3.00
-0.25 2.02 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.82
+0.50 1.38 1.62
+0.75 1.25 1.45
+1.00 1.14 1.27
+1.25 1.12 1.23
+1.50 1.11 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.23 2.91
-0.25 1.93 2.53
0 1.62 2.12
+0.25 1.44 1.75
+0.50 1.34 1.56

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.35 3.10
-0.25 2.02 2.67
+0.25 1.50 1.83
+0.50 1.40 1.62

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.05 9.10
-1.50 4.60 6.75
-1.25 4.15 6.15
-1.00 3.60 5.65
-0.75 2.67 3.68
-0.25 1.92 2.54
0 1.65 2.16
+0.25 1.43 1.75
+0.75 1.21 1.38
+1.00 1.08 1.21
+1.25 1.06 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.13

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.92 4.14
-0.50 2.41 3.20
-0.25 2.06 2.75
0 1.69 2.28
+0.25 1.50 1.85
+0.50 1.38 1.63
+0.75 1.26 1.45

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 5.80
-0.50 2.27 2.85
+0.50 1.37 1.56
+1.50 1.10 1.17

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.18 2.85
+0.50 1.35 1.58
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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