FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

FC Schalke 04
Oct 17, 2026 - 13:30
1.35 1.71
FSV Mainz 05
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 6 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

FC Schalke 04 opened at 0 against FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.33
FC Schalke 04 +0.33

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
FC Schalke 04 0
Model–Market Gap
0.33
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.33 AH points more toward FSV Mainz 05 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
FSV Mainz 05 0
@ 1.79
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.33
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+7.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.12 / 1.74 0 2.12 / 1.74 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.87 / 1.54 +0.25 1.87 / 1.54 — 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.70 0 2.10 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet 0 2.18 / 1.79 0 2.18 / 1.79 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.80 / 2.35 -0.50 2.80 / 2.35 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.39 / 1.92 -0.25 2.39 / 1.92 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.33
xG 1.35 / 1.71 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.12
FC Schalke 04 @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.51
FC Schalke 04 @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.12 vs 2.51
Market price is 15.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 11.50 8.30
-2.00 10.50 7.50
-1.75 7.05 5.26
-1.50 5.40 4.15
-1.25 5.07 3.72
-1.00 4.65 3.40
-0.75 3.36 2.64
-0.25 2.54 1.98
0 2.18 1.79
+0.25 1.77 1.61
+0.75 1.42 1.28
+1.00 1.27 1.16
+1.25 1.21 1.13
+1.50 1.17 1.10
+1.75 1.09 1.05
+2.00 1.03 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 5.50
-1.50 5.50 4.15
-1.25 5.25 3.70
-1.00 4.50 3.45
-0.75 3.45 2.60
-0.50 2.75 2.25
-0.25 2.42 2.02
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.82 1.52
+0.50 1.62 1.42
+0.75 1.48 1.30
+1.00 1.30 1.19
+1.25 1.26 1.16
+1.50 1.22 1.15
+1.75 1.15 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.35 2.59
-0.50 2.70 2.19
-0.25 2.39 1.92
0 2.06 1.65
+0.25 1.76 1.49
+0.50 1.58 1.39
+0.75 1.42 1.26

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.80 2.35
+0.50 1.62 1.47

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.95 5.30
-1.50 5.40 4.15
-1.25 5.05 3.74
-1.00 4.65 3.40
-0.75 3.36 2.66
-0.25 2.41 1.98
0 2.12 1.74
+0.25 1.77 1.53
+0.75 1.43 1.28
+1.00 1.27 1.16
+1.25 1.22 1.13
+1.50 1.17 1.10
+1.75 1.10 1.05

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.65 2.77
-0.50 2.97 2.34
-0.25 2.60 2.04
0 2.22 1.73
+0.25 1.87 1.54
+0.50 1.66 1.43
+0.75 1.49 1.31
Primary Bets
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