1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

1. FC Köln
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:30
2.11 1.16
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

1. FC Köln opened at -0.25 against Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.90
1. FC Köln -0.90

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
1. FC Köln -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.65
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.65 AH points more toward 1. FC Köln than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
1. FC Köln -0.25
@ 1.79
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.65
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.52
Price Advantage
+17.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.68 / 2.84 -0.25 1.68 / 2.84 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.79 / 2.88 -0.25 1.79 / 2.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.75 / 2.85 -0.25 1.75 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.78 / 2.84 -0.25 1.78 / 2.84 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.75 / 3.00 -0.25 1.75 / 3.00 — 0
BetVictor -0.50 1.92 / 3.10 -0.50 1.92 / 3.10 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.90
xG 2.11 / 1.16 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.79
1. FC Köln @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.52
1. FC Köln @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.79 vs 1.52
Market price is 17.8% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.22 6.20
-1.25 2.96 5.84
-1.00 2.66 5.50
-0.75 2.14 3.92
-0.25 1.78 2.84
0 1.55 2.69
+0.25 1.36 2.21
+0.75 1.18 1.66
+1.00 1.09 1.49
+1.25 1.07 1.41
+1.50 1.06 1.31

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.45 6.40
-1.25 3.10 6.00
-1.00 2.75 5.75
-0.75 2.25 3.90
-0.50 2.02 3.30
-0.25 1.75 2.85
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.40 2.05
+0.50 1.32 1.82
+0.75 1.24 1.62
+1.00 1.14 1.42
+1.25 1.12 1.35
+1.50 1.12 1.30

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.92 3.10
-0.25 1.70 2.77
0 1.48 2.41
+0.25 1.37 1.99
+0.50 1.30 1.76

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 3.00
+0.25 1.42 2.15

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.22 6.20
-1.25 2.90 5.85
-1.00 2.66 5.50
-0.75 2.14 3.94
-0.25 1.68 2.84
0 1.46 2.53
+0.25 1.36 2.09
+0.75 1.19 1.66
+1.00 1.09 1.49
+1.25 1.07 1.38
+1.50 1.06 1.31

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.04 3.24
-0.25 1.79 2.88
0 1.56 2.52
+0.25 1.44 2.09
+0.50 1.37 1.85
Primary Bets
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