Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Union Berlin
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:30
1.24 1.47
SV Elversberg
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 6 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Union Berlin opened at -0.25 against SV Elversberg in the Bundesliga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
Union Berlin +0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Union Berlin -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.46
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.46 AH points more toward SV Elversberg than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
SV Elversberg +0.25
@ 2.55
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.46
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.58
Price Advantage
+61.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.89 / 2.51 -0.25 1.89 / 2.51 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.76 / 2.17 0 1.76 / 2.17 — 0
Bet365 +0.25 1.52 / 1.85 +0.25 1.52 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.99 / 2.51 -0.25 1.99 / 2.51 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.55 / 1.87 +0.25 1.55 / 1.87 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.89 / 2.41 -0.25 1.89 / 2.41 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
xG 1.24 / 1.47 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.89
Union Berlin @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.73
Union Berlin @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.89 vs 2.73
Market price is 30.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.80 11.50
-2.00 7.00 10.50
-1.75 4.92 8.55
-1.50 3.90 5.70
-1.25 3.50 5.27
-1.00 3.15 4.90
-0.75 2.50 3.46
-0.25 1.99 2.51
0 1.73 2.29
+0.25 1.49 1.95
+0.75 1.26 1.48
+1.00 1.14 1.31
+1.25 1.11 1.26
+1.50 1.09 1.20
+1.75 1.04 1.12
+2.00 1.02 1.04

Bet365 Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.00 5.75
-1.25 3.55 5.25
-1.00 3.30 4.65
-0.75 2.60 3.45
-0.50 2.20 2.75
-0.25 2.00 2.42
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.52 1.85
+0.50 1.42 1.65
+0.75 1.30 1.48
+1.00 1.18 1.32
+1.25 1.16 1.27
+1.50 1.14 1.23

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.53 3.35
-0.50 2.15 2.73
-0.25 1.89 2.41
0 1.64 2.09
+0.25 1.48 1.78
+0.50 1.38 1.60
+0.75 1.26 1.44

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 2.87
-0.25 1.98 2.55
+0.25 1.55 1.87
+0.50 1.44 1.67

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.90 7.30
-1.50 3.90 5.70
-1.25 3.48 5.30
-1.00 3.15 4.90
-0.75 2.50 3.48
-0.25 1.89 2.51
0 1.68 2.22
+0.25 1.49 1.85
+0.75 1.27 1.48
+1.00 1.14 1.31
+1.25 1.11 1.25
+1.50 1.09 1.20
+1.75 1.04 1.12

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.71 3.47
-0.50 2.31 2.83
-0.25 2.04 2.51
0 1.76 2.17
+0.25 1.58 1.87
+0.50 1.47 1.68
+0.75 1.34 1.51
Primary Bets
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