FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

FSV Mainz 05
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:30
1.85 1.69
Bayer Leverkusen
Opening
+0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
+0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
+0.25
3 / 6 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

FSV Mainz 05 opened at +0.25 against Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. The current market consensus is +0.25. The current consensus is +0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.15
FSV Mainz 05 -0.15

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
FSV Mainz 05 +0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.40
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

+0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.40 AH points more toward FSV Mainz 05 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
FSV Mainz 05 +0.25
@ 1.94
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.40
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+16.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
+0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.18 / 1.70 0 2.18 / 1.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.94 / 1.53 +0.25 1.94 / 1.53 — 0
Bet365 +0.25 1.90 / 1.50 +0.25 1.90 / 1.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.59 / 1.91 -0.25 2.59 / 1.91 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.90 / 1.52 +0.25 1.90 / 1.52 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.44 / 1.86 -0.25 2.44 / 1.86 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.15
xG 1.85 / 1.69 · pre-match
Market Handicap
+0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.94
FSV Mainz 05 @ +0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.67
FSV Mainz 05 @ +0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.94 vs 1.67
Market price is 16.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 11.00 7.30
-2.00 10.00 6.55
-1.75 6.94 4.68
-1.50 5.35 3.75
-1.25 5.02 3.40
-1.00 4.60 3.10
-0.75 3.36 2.49
-0.25 2.59 1.91
0 2.25 1.75
+0.25 1.83 1.59
+0.75 1.47 1.28
+1.00 1.32 1.16
+1.25 1.25 1.13
+1.50 1.21 1.10
+1.75 1.12 1.06
+2.00 1.05 1.02

Bet365 Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 4.80
-1.25 5.25 3.45
-1.00 4.50 3.10
-0.75 3.45 2.42
-0.50 2.85 2.15
-0.25 2.50 1.95
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.90 1.50
+0.50 1.68 1.40
+0.75 1.52 1.30
+1.00 1.35 1.19
+1.25 1.30 1.16
+1.75 1.18 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.35 2.44
-0.50 2.75 2.10
-0.25 2.44 1.86
0 2.13 1.61
+0.25 1.82 1.47
+0.50 1.63 1.38
+0.75 1.47 1.26

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.95 2.20
-0.25 2.60 1.95
+0.25 1.90 1.52
+0.50 1.70 1.42

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 4.70
-1.50 5.35 3.75
-1.25 5.00 3.42
-1.00 4.60 3.10
-0.75 3.36 2.50
-0.25 2.46 1.91
0 2.18 1.70
+0.25 1.83 1.51
+0.75 1.48 1.28
+1.00 1.32 1.16
+1.25 1.26 1.13
+1.50 1.21 1.10
+1.75 1.13 1.05

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.66 2.56
-0.50 2.98 2.22
-0.25 2.64 1.96
0 2.28 1.68
+0.25 1.94 1.53
+0.50 1.72 1.43
+0.75 1.56 1.31
Primary Bets
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