Thionville Lusitanos vs Versailles Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Thionville Lusitanos
Oct 17, 2026 - 12:45
1.26 1.34
Versailles
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Thionville Lusitanos opened at -0.25 against Versailles in the Ligue 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Thionville Lusitanos -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Versailles than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Thionville Lusitanos -0.25
@ 3.18
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.48
Price Advantage
+28.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.88 / 1.67 -0.25 2.88 / 1.67 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.16 / 1.70 -0.25 3.18 / 1.70 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.90 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.90 / 1.67 -0.25 2.90 / 1.67 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.18
Thionville Lusitanos @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.48
Thionville Lusitanos @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.18 vs 2.48
Market price is 28.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 3.50
-1.25 7.09 3.14
-1.00 6.55 2.78
-0.75 4.25 2.19
-0.25 2.90 1.67
0 2.50 1.44
+0.25 1.98 1.33
+0.75 1.54 1.15
+1.00 1.34 1.05
+1.25 1.27 1.04
+1.50 1.22 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.30
-1.25 6.80 3.00
-1.00 6.40 2.60
-0.75 4.40 2.20
-0.50 3.55 1.95
-0.25 3.10 1.68
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.35
+0.50 1.85 1.27
+0.75 1.65 1.20
+1.00 1.48 1.12
+1.25 1.38 1.10
+1.50 1.32 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 3.50
-1.25 7.10 3.14
-1.00 6.55 2.78
-0.75 4.25 2.19
-0.25 2.88 1.67
0 2.50 1.44
+0.25 1.98 1.32
+0.75 1.54 1.15
+1.00 1.34 1.05
+1.25 1.27 1.04
+1.50 1.22 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.63 1.97
-0.25 3.18 1.70
0 2.74 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.34
+0.50 1.85 1.28
Primary Bets
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