Gobelins vs Rouen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Gobelins
Oct 17, 2026 - 12:45
1.20 1.40
Rouen
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Gobelins opened at -0.25 against Rouen in the Ligue 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
Gobelins +0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Gobelins -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.43
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.43 AH points more toward Rouen than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Gobelins -0.25
@ 3.11
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.43
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.70
Price Advantage
+15.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.08 / 1.64 -0.25 3.08 / 1.64 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.00 / 1.78 -0.25 3.00 / 1.78 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.11 / 1.64 -0.25 3.11 / 1.64 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
xG 1.20 / 1.40 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.08
Gobelins @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.70
Gobelins @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.08 vs 2.70
Market price is 14.1% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.60 3.58
-1.25 8.05 3.20
-1.00 7.50 2.83
-0.75 4.70 2.19
-0.25 3.11 1.64
0 2.62 1.40
+0.25 2.02 1.29
+0.75 1.54 1.12
+1.00 1.33 1.03
+1.25 1.26 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 7.00 3.45
-1.00 6.60 3.00
-0.75 4.25 2.35
-0.50 3.45 2.05
-0.25 3.00 1.78
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.02 1.38
+0.50 1.75 1.30
+0.75 1.58 1.21
+1.00 1.38 1.11
+1.25 1.30 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.60 3.58
-1.25 8.10 3.20
-1.00 7.50 2.83
-0.75 4.70 2.19
-0.25 3.08 1.64
0 2.62 1.40
+0.25 2.02 1.28
+0.75 1.54 1.12
+1.00 1.33 1.03
+1.25 1.26 1.02
Primary Bets
More