Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Fleury 91 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Bourg-en-bresse 01
Oct 17, 2026 - 12:45
1.19 1.41
Fleury 91
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Bourg-en-bresse 01 opened at -0.25 against Fleury 91 in the Ligue 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Bourg-en-bresse 01 +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Bourg-en-bresse 01 -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward Fleury 91 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Fleury 91 +0.25
@ 1.88
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.45
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.58
Price Advantage
+19.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.59 / 1.82 -0.25 2.59 / 1.82 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.88 -0.25 2.75 / 1.88 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.62 / 1.82 -0.25 2.62 / 1.82 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
xG 1.19 / 1.41 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.59
Bourg-en-bresse 01 @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.74
Bourg-en-bresse 01 @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.59 vs 2.74
Market price is 5.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 5.55
-1.50 6.90 4.30
-1.25 6.39 3.84
-1.00 5.85 3.34
-0.75 3.84 2.49
-0.25 2.62 1.82
0 2.23 1.55
+0.25 1.80 1.40
+0.75 1.42 1.18
+1.00 1.24 1.07
+1.25 1.18 1.05
+1.50 1.15 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.60 3.90
-1.25 6.25 3.55
-1.00 5.75 3.30
-0.75 4.00 2.50
-0.50 3.30 2.15
-0.25 2.75 1.88
0 2.35 1.58
+0.25 1.92 1.42
+0.50 1.68 1.32
+0.75 1.50 1.23
+1.00 1.32 1.14
+1.25 1.27 1.12
+1.50 1.24 1.11

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.20 5.55
-1.50 6.90 4.30
-1.25 6.40 3.84
-1.00 5.85 3.34
-0.75 3.84 2.49
-0.25 2.59 1.82
0 2.23 1.55
+0.25 1.80 1.39
+0.75 1.42 1.18
+1.00 1.24 1.07
+1.25 1.18 1.05
+1.50 1.15 1.04
Primary Bets
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