Aubagne vs Le Puy Foot Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Aubagne
Oct 17, 2026 - 12:45
1.26 1.34
Le Puy Foot
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Aubagne opened at -0.25 against Le Puy Foot in the Ligue 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Aubagne -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Le Puy Foot than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Le Puy Foot +0.25
@ 2.02
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+21.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.70 / 1.78 -0.25 2.70 / 1.78 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.87 / 1.85 -0.25 2.87 / 1.85 — 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.70 0 2.10 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.73 / 1.78 -0.25 2.73 / 1.78 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.87
Aubagne @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.48
Aubagne @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.87 vs 2.48
Market price is 15.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 5.24
-1.50 7.10 4.05
-1.25 6.60 3.58
-1.00 6.10 3.20
-0.75 3.98 2.42
-0.25 2.73 1.78
0 2.31 1.51
+0.25 1.84 1.37
+0.75 1.44 1.17
+1.00 1.26 1.06
+1.25 1.21 1.05
+1.50 1.16 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 4.40
-1.25 5.50 4.00
-1.00 5.00 3.55
-0.75 3.45 2.75
-0.50 2.85 2.30
-0.25 2.42 2.02
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.78 1.52
+0.50 1.60 1.40
+0.75 1.42 1.30
+1.00 1.27 1.17
+1.25 1.23 1.15
+1.50 1.20 1.13

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.00 5.25
-1.50 7.10 4.05
-1.25 6.60 3.58
-1.00 6.10 3.20
-0.75 3.98 2.42
-0.25 2.70 1.78
0 2.31 1.51
+0.25 1.84 1.36
+0.75 1.44 1.17
+1.00 1.26 1.06
+1.25 1.21 1.05
+1.50 1.16 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.23 2.54
-0.50 3.30 2.15
-0.25 2.87 1.85
0 2.43 1.55
+0.25 1.94 1.41
+0.50 1.69 1.32
+0.75 1.51 1.21
Primary Bets
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