Bastia vs Orleans Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Bastia
Oct 01, 2026 - 18:45
1.29 1.31
Orleans
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Bastia opened at -0.25 against Orleans in the Ligue 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Bastia -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Orleans than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Orleans +0.25
@ 2.63
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+52.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.91 / 2.46 -0.25 1.91 / 2.46 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.03 / 2.63 -0.25 2.03 / 2.63 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.50 -0.25 2.00 / 2.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.93 / 2.46 -0.25 1.93 / 2.46 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.29 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.03
Bastia @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.39
Bastia @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.03 vs 2.39
Market price is 15.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.20 8.90
-1.50 4.70 6.60
-1.25 4.24 6.05
-1.00 3.76 5.55
-0.75 2.70 3.58
-0.25 1.93 2.46
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.43 1.74
+0.75 1.21 1.36
+1.00 1.08 1.19
+1.25 1.06 1.15
+1.50 1.05 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.00
-1.25 3.90 5.75
-1.00 3.55 5.25
-0.75 2.68 3.55
-0.50 2.30 3.00
-0.25 2.00 2.50
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.50 1.80
+0.50 1.38 1.60
+0.75 1.27 1.45
+1.00 1.16 1.27
+1.25 1.14 1.24
+1.50 1.12 1.20

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.20 8.90
-1.50 4.70 6.60
-1.25 4.25 6.05
-1.00 3.76 5.55
-0.75 2.70 3.58
-0.25 1.91 2.46
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.43 1.72
+0.75 1.21 1.36
+1.00 1.08 1.19
+1.25 1.06 1.15
+1.50 1.05 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.91 3.90
-0.50 2.38 3.05
-0.25 2.03 2.63
0 1.67 2.18
+0.25 1.47 1.78
+0.50 1.36 1.57
+0.75 1.24 1.40
Primary Bets
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