Fleury 91 vs Thionville Lusitanos Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Fleury 91
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Thionville Lusitanos
Kick-off 12:45 Stadium Stade Robert Bobin

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Fleury 91 opened at -0.25 against Thionville Lusitanos in the Ligue 3. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
Fleury 91 -0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.39 / 1.21
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Fleury 91 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Thionville Lusitanos than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Thionville Lusitanos +0.25
@ 3.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+59.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
10:35
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
12:44
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.69 / 2.83 -0.25 1.62 / 2.97 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.76 / 3.01 -0.25 1.79 / 3.03 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.83 -0.25 1.62 / 2.97 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.59 / 2.81 -0.25 1.59 / 2.81 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.00 9.30
-1.50 3.20 7.20
-1.25 2.87 6.79
-1.00 2.52 6.40
-0.75 2.08 4.32
-0.25 1.62 2.97
0 1.40 2.62
+0.25 1.30 2.09
+0.75 1.14 1.60
+1.00 1.05 1.41
+1.25 1.04 1.32
+1.50 1.03 1.26

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.30 6.80
-1.25 2.85 6.40
-1.00 2.60 5.90
-0.75 2.15 4.25
-0.50 1.95 3.45
-0.25 1.70 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.10
+0.50 1.30 1.85
+0.75 1.21 1.68
+1.00 1.13 1.48
+1.25 1.12 1.40
+1.50 1.10 1.32

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.59 2.81
0 1.37 2.78
+0.25 1.36 2.17

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.00 9.20
-1.50 3.20 7.20
-1.25 2.88 6.75
-1.00 2.56 6.35
-0.75 2.08 4.30
-0.25 1.62 2.97
0 1.41 2.60
+0.25 1.30 2.06
+0.75 1.15 1.60
+1.00 1.06 1.40
+1.25 1.04 1.32
+1.50 1.03 1.26

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.06 3.46
-0.25 1.79 3.03
0 1.52 2.60
+0.25 1.39 2.07
+0.50 1.31 1.81
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More