Amiens vs La Roche VF Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Amiens
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
La Roche VF
Kick-off 17:00 Stadium Stade de la Licorne

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Amiens opened at -0.25 against La Roche VF in the Ligue 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Amiens -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward La Roche VF than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
La Roche VF +0.25
@ 2.80
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+58.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
-0.25
14:10
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.70 / 2.00 0 1.70 / 2.00 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.84 / 2.56 -0.25 1.84 / 2.56 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.75 -0.25 1.95 / 2.80 — 0
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.86 / 2.56 -0.25 1.86 / 2.56 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.89 / 2.58 -0.25 1.89 / 2.58 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.70 2.00

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.64 9.00
-1.50 4.30 6.75
-1.25 3.88 6.25
-1.00 3.42 5.75
-0.75 2.52 3.80
-0.25 1.86 2.56
0 1.57 2.20
+0.25 1.40 1.80
+0.75 1.19 1.41
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.25 1.06 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 5.90
-1.25 3.80 5.75
-1.00 3.45 5.25
-0.75 2.60 3.55
-0.50 2.25 3.00
-0.25 1.98 2.60
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.48 1.82
+0.50 1.38 1.62
+0.75 1.27 1.48
+1.00 1.16 1.30
+1.25 1.14 1.25
+1.50 1.13 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.89 2.58
0 1.59 2.17
+0.25 1.42 1.78

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.65 9.00
-1.50 4.30 6.75
-1.25 3.88 6.25
-1.00 3.42 5.75
-0.75 2.52 3.80
-0.25 1.84 2.56
0 1.57 2.20
+0.25 1.40 1.78
+0.75 1.19 1.41
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.25 1.06 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.60 4.86
-0.75 2.70 4.14
-0.50 2.26 3.22
-0.25 1.95 2.80
0 1.62 2.35
+0.25 1.45 1.90
+0.50 1.35 1.67
+0.75 1.24 1.48
+1.00 1.17 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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