Donau vs Scheiblingkirchen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Donau
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.22 1.38
Scheiblingkirchen
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Donau opened at 0 against Scheiblingkirchen in the Regionalliga - Ost. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Donau from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Donau +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Donau -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Scheiblingkirchen than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Scheiblingkirchen +0.25
@ 2.74
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+69.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.73 / 1.94 -0.25 1.67 / 2.74 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.67 / 2.74 -0.25 1.67 / 2.74 — 0
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 0 1.78 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet 0 1.73 / 1.94 -0.25 1.68 / 2.74 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
xG 1.22 / 1.38 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.67
Donau @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.62
Donau @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.67 vs 2.62
Market price is 36.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.10 9.50
-2.00 6.20 9.00
-1.75 4.33 9.10
-1.50 3.42 6.80
-1.25 3.05 6.29
-1.00 2.70 5.80
-0.75 2.15 3.94
-0.25 1.68 2.74
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.35 2.00
+0.75 1.17 1.56
+1.00 1.07 1.36
+1.25 1.06 1.28
+1.50 1.04 1.23

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.00 5.90
-1.50 3.90 4.50
-1.25 3.55 4.25
-1.00 3.30 3.90
-0.75 2.68 3.10
-0.50 2.30 2.60
-0.25 2.05 2.30
0 1.78 2.02
+0.25 1.60 1.75
+0.50 1.48 1.60
+0.75 1.35 1.45
+1.00 1.24 1.32
+1.25 1.21 1.27
+1.50 1.19 1.24
+1.75 1.13 1.17

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.20 9.00
-1.75 4.33 9.10
-1.50 3.42 6.80
-1.25 3.05 6.30
-1.00 2.70 5.80
-0.75 2.15 3.94
-0.25 1.67 2.74
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.35 1.98
+0.75 1.17 1.56
+1.00 1.07 1.36
+1.25 1.06 1.28
+1.50 1.04 1.23

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.67 2.74
0 1.46 2.44
+0.25 1.37 2.06
Primary Bets
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