Parndorf vs Wiener SC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Parndorf
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Wiener SC
Kick-off 17:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Parndorf opened at 0 against Wiener SC in the Regionalliga - Ost. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Parndorf from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.28 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Parndorf -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Wiener SC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Wiener SC +0.25
@ 1.92
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+12.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:30
Opening
0
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.83 / 1.83 -0.25 2.35 / 1.85 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.42 / 1.83 -0.25 2.42 / 1.83 — 0
Bet365 0 1.85 / 1.95 -0.25 2.42 / 1.92 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.94 / 1.77 -0.25 2.37 / 1.85 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.60 7.70
-2.00 8.70 6.95
-1.75 6.85 4.85
-1.50 5.30 3.84
-1.25 4.89 3.42
-1.00 4.45 3.08
-0.75 3.20 2.43
-0.25 2.37 1.85
0 2.06 1.64
+0.25 1.77 1.48
+0.75 1.44 1.26
+1.00 1.28 1.14
+1.25 1.23 1.11
+1.50 1.18 1.09
+1.75 1.11 1.04
+2.50 1.02 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.40 4.40
-1.50 5.00 3.55
-1.25 4.50 3.30
-1.00 4.25 3.00
-0.75 3.30 2.42
-0.50 2.75 2.15
-0.25 2.42 1.92
0 2.15 1.68
+0.25 1.88 1.52
+0.50 1.68 1.42
+0.75 1.52 1.32
+1.00 1.38 1.21
+1.25 1.32 1.19
+1.50 1.27 1.17
+1.75 1.20 1.12

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.70 7.70
-2.00 8.70 6.95
-1.75 6.85 4.85
-1.50 5.30 3.84
-1.25 4.90 3.42
-1.00 4.45 3.08
-0.75 3.20 2.43
-0.25 2.35 1.85
0 2.06 1.64
+0.25 1.77 1.47
+0.75 1.44 1.26
+1.00 1.28 1.14
+1.25 1.23 1.11
+1.50 1.18 1.09
+1.75 1.11 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.69 2.02
-0.25 2.42 1.83
0 2.17 1.60
+0.25 1.88 1.47
+0.50 1.69 1.38
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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