Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Real Madrid III
Oct 07, 2026 - 10:00
1.29 1.31
Guadalajara
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
+0.25
Toward Away · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Real Madrid III opened at -0.25 against Guadalajara in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Guadalajara from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Real Madrid III 0
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Guadalajara than the current market.

Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.89 / 2.52 0 1.88 / 1.78 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.97 / 2.63 0 2.01 / 1.79 — +0.25
Bet365 0 1.95 / 1.85 0 1.95 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.91 / 2.52 0 1.88 / 1.78 — +0.25
BetVictor 0 1.88 / 1.79 0 1.88 / 1.79 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.29 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.01
Real Madrid III @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.03
Real Madrid III @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.01 vs 2.03
Market price is 1.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.05 5.55
-1.25 5.10 5.05
-1.00 5.00 4.55
-0.75 3.42 3.14
-0.25 2.33 2.15
0 1.88 1.78
+0.25 1.56 1.51
+0.75 1.27 1.23
+1.00 1.13 1.10
+1.25 1.10 1.10
+1.50 1.08 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.95 1.85

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.88 1.79

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.05 5.55
-1.25 5.25 5.05
-1.00 5.00 4.55
-0.75 3.42 3.14
-0.25 2.30 2.15
0 1.88 1.78
+0.25 1.56 1.49
+0.75 1.27 1.23
+1.00 1.13 1.10
+1.25 1.10 1.09
+1.50 1.08 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.61 3.15
-0.50 2.88 2.58
-0.25 2.46 2.20
0 2.01 1.79
+0.25 1.64 1.52
+0.50 1.46 1.37
+0.75 1.32 1.25
Primary Bets
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