Ciudad de Lucena vs Don Benito Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ciudad de Lucena
Oct 11, 2026 - 15:30
1.36 1.24
Don Benito
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ciudad de Lucena opened at 0 against Don Benito in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Ciudad de Lucena from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ciudad de Lucena -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Don Benito than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Don Benito +0.25
@ 3.01
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.84
Price Advantage
+63.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.86 / 1.80 -0.25 1.69 / 2.97 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.72 / 3.20 -0.25 1.81 / 3.01 — 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.90 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet 0 1.86 / 1.80 -0.25 1.70 / 2.97 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
xG 1.36 / 1.24 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.81
Ciudad de Lucena @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.19
Ciudad de Lucena @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.81 vs 2.19
Market price is 17.4% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.40 9.70
-1.50 3.82 8.30
-1.25 3.34 4.64
-1.00 2.97 7.20
-0.75 2.28 4.54
-0.25 1.70 2.97
0 1.43 2.53
+0.25 1.30 1.97
+0.75 1.13 1.50
+1.00 1.03 1.30
+1.25 1.12 1.24
+1.50 1.02 1.18

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.90 1.90

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.82 8.30
-1.25 3.34 4.65
-1.00 2.97 7.20
-0.75 2.28 4.55
-0.25 1.69 2.97
0 1.43 2.53
+0.25 1.30 1.95
+0.75 1.13 1.50
+1.00 1.03 1.30
+1.25 1.12 1.24
+1.50 1.02 1.18

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.09 3.48
-0.25 1.81 3.01
0 1.48 2.56
+0.25 1.34 1.99
+0.50 1.27 1.70
Primary Bets
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