Poblense vs Castellón II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Poblense
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
1.35 1.25
Castellón II
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Poblense opened at -0.25 against Castellón II in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Poblense -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Castellón II than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Castellón II +0.25
@ 2.56
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+40.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.69 / 2.81 -0.25 1.89 / 2.49 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.00 / 2.56 -0.25 2.00 / 2.56 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.81 -0.25 1.91 / 2.49 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
xG 1.35 / 1.25 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.00
Poblense @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.22
Poblense @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.00 vs 2.22
Market price is 9.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.45 6.55
-1.00 3.50 5.50
-0.75 2.62 3.68
-0.25 1.91 2.49
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.42 1.76
+0.75 1.20 1.38
+1.00 1.08 1.22
+1.50 1.05 1.14

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.45 6.55
-1.00 3.50 5.50
-0.75 2.62 3.68
-0.25 1.89 2.49
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.42 1.74
+0.75 1.20 1.38
+1.00 1.08 1.22
+1.50 1.05 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.30 2.96
-0.25 2.00 2.56
0 1.65 2.17
+0.25 1.46 1.80
+0.50 1.36 1.58
Primary Bets
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