Tudelano vs Reddis Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Tudelano
Oct 11, 2026 - 16:00
1.38 1.22
Reddis
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Tudelano opened at -0.25 against Reddis in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
Tudelano -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Tudelano -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Reddis than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Reddis +0.25
@ 2.68
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+42.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.88 / 2.49 -0.25 1.81 / 2.59 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.91 / 2.68 -0.25 1.91 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.90 / 2.49 -0.25 1.83 / 2.59 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
xG 1.38 / 1.22 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.91
Tudelano @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.14
Tudelano @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.91 vs 2.14
Market price is 10.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 6.60
-1.00 3.28 5.70
-0.75 2.46 3.78
-0.25 1.83 2.59
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.39 1.83
+0.75 1.19 1.43
+1.00 1.08 1.25
+1.50 1.05 1.16

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 6.60
-1.00 3.28 5.70
-0.75 2.46 3.78
-0.25 1.81 2.59
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.39 1.81
+0.75 1.19 1.43
+1.00 1.08 1.25
+1.50 1.05 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.19 3.08
-0.25 1.91 2.68
0 1.59 2.29
+0.25 1.43 1.88
+0.50 1.33 1.65
Primary Bets
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