Náxara vs Peña Sport Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Náxara
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:00
1.33 1.27
Peña Sport
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.50
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Náxara opened at -0.25 against Peña Sport in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Náxara -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Peña Sport than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Peña Sport +0.25
@ 3.15
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+76.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.85 / 2.49 -0.25 1.65 / 2.92 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 1.90 / 2.96 -0.50 1.90 / 2.96 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.87 / 2.49 -0.25 1.67 / 2.92 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.65
Náxara @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.27
Náxara @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.65 vs 2.27
Market price is 27.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.50 7.40
-1.00 2.74 6.55
-0.75 2.17 4.30
-0.25 1.67 2.92
0 1.42 2.56
+0.25 1.31 2.02
+0.75 1.14 1.55
+1.00 1.05 1.35
+1.50 1.03 1.22

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.50 7.40
-1.00 2.74 6.55
-0.75 2.17 4.30
-0.25 1.65 2.92
0 1.42 2.56
+0.25 1.31 2.00
+0.75 1.15 1.55
+1.00 1.05 1.35
+1.50 1.03 1.22

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.90 2.96
-0.25 1.65 3.15
0 1.41 2.73
+0.25 1.32 2.17
+0.50 1.36 1.88
Primary Bets
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