Ludogorets II vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ludogorets II
Sep 27, 2026 - 16:00 PST
1.33 1.27
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
-0.25
PRE1 consensus
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ludogorets II opened at -0.25 against Etar Veliko Tarnovo in the Second League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ludogorets II -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Etar Veliko Tarnovo than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Etar Veliko Tarnovo +0.25
@ 2.33
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+30.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.46 -0.25 1.92 / 2.33 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.99 / 2.32 -0.25 2.00 / 2.33 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.85 / 2.46 -0.25 1.94 / 2.33 -0.25 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Closing consensus
Market Odds
2.00
Ludogorets II @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.27
Ludogorets II @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.00 vs 2.27
Market price is 11.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.45 7.10
-1.50 4.25 5.45
-1.25 3.84 5.04
-1.00 3.42 4.60
-0.75 2.62 3.28
-0.25 1.94 2.33
0 1.67 2.02
+0.25 1.48 1.73
+0.75 1.25 1.38
+1.00 1.13 1.23
+1.25 1.10 1.18
+1.50 1.08 1.15
+1.75 1.04 1.09

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.45 7.10
-1.50 4.25 5.45
-1.25 3.84 5.05
-1.00 3.42 4.60
-0.75 2.62 3.28
-0.25 1.92 2.33
0 1.67 2.02
+0.25 1.48 1.71
+0.75 1.25 1.38
+1.00 1.13 1.23
+1.25 1.10 1.18
+1.50 1.08 1.15
+1.75 1.04 1.08

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.63 3.11
-0.50 2.26 2.65
-0.25 2.00 2.33
0 1.69 2.02
+0.25 1.50 1.73
+0.50 1.39 1.55
+0.75 1.29 1.40
Primary Bets
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