Fratria vs Beroe Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Fratria
Final Score
2 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Beroe
Kick-off 15:45 Stadium Albena Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Fratria opened at -0.25 against Beroe in the Second League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
Fratria -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.41 / 1.19
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Fratria -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Beroe than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Beroe +0.25
@ 2.97
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.94
Price Advantage
+53.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
-0.25
14:07
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
15:44
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.51 / 2.34 -0.25 1.76 / 2.88 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.65 / 3.11 -0.25 1.78 / 2.97 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.85 / 2.68 -0.25 1.85 / 2.68 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 1.66 / 2.10 -0.25 1.79 / 2.88 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.46 8.80
-1.50 4.20 8.20
-1.25 3.74 7.65
-1.00 3.28 7.10
-0.75 2.43 4.40
-0.25 1.79 2.88
0 1.47 2.45
+0.25 1.32 1.89
+0.75 1.14 1.44
+1.00 1.04 1.25
+1.25 1.02 1.19
+1.50 1.02 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 7.00
-1.25 4.15 6.40
-1.00 3.55 5.90
-0.75 2.68 3.90
-0.50 2.30 3.10
-0.25 1.85 2.68
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.45 1.95
+0.50 1.35 1.60
+0.75 1.24 1.45
+1.00 1.13 1.27
+1.25 1.12 1.22
+1.50 1.10 1.19

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.45 8.80
-1.50 4.20 8.20
-1.25 3.74 7.70
-1.00 3.28 7.10
-0.75 2.43 4.40
-0.25 1.76 2.88
0 1.47 2.45
+0.25 1.32 1.86
+0.75 1.14 1.44
+1.00 1.04 1.25
+1.25 1.03 1.19
+1.50 1.02 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.46 3.49
-0.50 2.03 3.42
-0.25 1.78 2.97
0 1.45 2.50
+0.25 1.32 1.97
+0.50 1.25 1.67
+0.75 1.23 1.46
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More