Ibiza vs Real Madrid II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ibiza
Oct 09, 2026 - 19:00
1.28 1.32
Real Madrid II
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ibiza opened at -0.25 against Real Madrid II in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ibiza -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Real Madrid II than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Real Madrid II +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+61.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.49 -0.25 1.81 / 2.59 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.50 / 1.78 -0.25 1.93 / 2.65 — -0.50
Bet365 -0.25 1.92 / 2.68 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.85 / 2.49 -0.25 1.83 / 2.59 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.85 / 2.62 -0.25 1.84 / 2.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
xG 1.28 / 1.32 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
Ibiza @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.42
Ibiza @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 2.42
Market price is 20.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.09 8.30
-1.50 3.98 6.35
-1.25 3.58 5.90
-1.00 3.20 5.45
-0.75 2.46 3.74
-0.25 1.83 2.59
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.39 1.83
+0.75 1.19 1.43
+1.00 1.08 1.26
+1.25 1.07 1.21
+1.50 1.06 1.17
+1.75 1.02 1.10

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.10 6.60
-1.25 3.70 6.25
-1.00 3.30 5.75
-0.75 2.50 3.90
-0.50 2.15 3.10
-0.25 1.90 2.75
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.42 1.90
+0.50 1.35 1.68
+0.75 1.24 1.50
+1.00 1.14 1.32
+1.25 1.12 1.26
+1.50 1.11 1.23

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.84 2.62
0 1.56 2.23
+0.25 1.41 1.83

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 8.30
-1.50 3.98 6.35
-1.25 3.58 5.90
-1.00 3.20 5.45
-0.75 2.46 3.75
-0.25 1.81 2.59
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.39 1.81
+0.75 1.19 1.43
+1.00 1.08 1.26
+1.25 1.07 1.21
+1.50 1.06 1.17
+1.75 1.02 1.10

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.21 3.04
-0.25 1.93 2.65
0 1.60 2.26
+0.25 1.43 1.86
+0.50 1.34 1.63
Primary Bets
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