Rayo Majadahonda vs Real Murcia Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Rayo Majadahonda
Oct 11, 2026 - 16:45
1.26 1.34
Real Murcia
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
+0.25
Toward Away · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Rayo Majadahonda opened at -0.25 against Real Murcia in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Real Murcia from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Rayo Majadahonda 0
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward Real Murcia than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Real Murcia 0
@ 2.04
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+7.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.56 / 1.82 0 1.75 / 1.91 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.91 / 1.88 0 1.77 / 2.04 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.90 0 1.80 / 2.00 — +0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.59 / 1.82 0 1.75 / 1.91 — +0.25
BetVictor 0 1.71 / 1.98 0 1.72 / 1.97 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.26 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.77
Rayo Majadahonda @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.11
Rayo Majadahonda @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.77 vs 2.11
Market price is 16.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.69 7.70
-1.50 5.10 5.80
-1.25 4.69 5.35
-1.00 4.20 4.90
-0.75 2.92 3.28
-0.25 2.09 2.28
0 1.75 1.91
+0.25 1.50 1.62
+0.75 1.25 1.31
+1.00 1.11 1.15
+1.25 1.09 1.12
+1.50 1.07 1.10
+1.75 1.03 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.50 6.00
-1.25 4.80 5.75
-1.00 4.25 5.00
-0.75 3.10 3.45
-0.50 2.50 2.75
-0.25 2.15 2.35
0 1.80 2.00
+0.25 1.58 1.68
+0.50 1.42 1.50
+0.75 1.30 1.35
+1.00 1.17 1.21
+1.25 1.14 1.18
+1.50 1.12 1.15

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.41 2.77
-0.25 2.07 2.36
0 1.72 1.97
+0.25 1.50 1.65
+0.50 1.37 1.48

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.70 7.70
-1.50 5.10 5.80
-1.25 4.70 5.35
-1.00 4.20 4.90
-0.75 2.92 3.28
-0.25 2.07 2.28
0 1.75 1.91
+0.25 1.50 1.61
+0.75 1.25 1.31
+1.00 1.11 1.15
+1.25 1.09 1.12
+1.50 1.07 1.10
+1.75 1.03 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.02 3.52
-0.50 2.46 2.81
-0.25 2.12 2.44
0 1.77 2.04
+0.25 1.53 1.68
+0.50 1.39 1.50
+0.75 1.26 1.34
Primary Bets
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