Real Jaén vs Villarreal II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Real Jaén
Oct 10, 2026 - 16:45
1.21 1.39
Villarreal II
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Real Jaén opened at 0 against Villarreal II in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
Real Jaén +0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Real Jaén 0
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Villarreal II than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Villarreal II 0
@ 2.02
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+12.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.73 / 1.94 0 1.73 / 1.94 — 0
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 0 1.78 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet 0 1.73 / 1.94 0 1.73 / 1.94 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
xG 1.21 / 1.39 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.73
Real Jaén @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.26
Real Jaén @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.73 vs 2.26
Market price is 23.5% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.40 10.00
-1.75 6.25 8.10
-1.50 4.75 5.55
-1.25 4.30 5.09
-1.00 3.85 4.65
-0.75 2.78 3.20
-0.25 2.02 2.26
0 1.73 1.94
+0.25 1.51 1.67
+0.75 1.26 1.34
+1.00 1.12 1.18
+1.25 1.10 1.14
+1.50 1.08 1.12
+1.75 1.03 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.65 5.75
-1.25 4.25 5.25
-1.00 3.80 4.50
-0.75 2.85 3.30
-0.50 2.38 2.68
-0.25 2.08 2.35
0 1.78 2.02
+0.25 1.58 1.72
+0.50 1.45 1.55
+0.75 1.32 1.40
+1.00 1.19 1.25
+1.25 1.16 1.21
+1.50 1.14 1.18

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.25 7.40
-1.50 4.75 5.55
-1.25 4.30 5.10
-1.00 3.85 4.65
-0.75 2.78 3.20
-0.25 2.00 2.26
0 1.73 1.94
+0.25 1.51 1.65
+0.75 1.26 1.34
+1.00 1.12 1.18
+1.25 1.10 1.14
+1.50 1.08 1.12
+1.75 1.03 1.06
Primary Bets
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